According to the 2026 Big Survey results, many independent retailers expect a difficult year ahead. A majority of these businesses anticipate falling sales, while only a minority forecast growth. This divergence appears directly linked to how shoppers are changing their habits. The survey shows a clear link between these revenue expectations and consumer spending patterns. Among those expecting lower sales, a majority report that customers are buying less per visit. Similarly, fewer shoppers are visiting these struggling retailers compared to those in expanding businesses.
Payroll pressures weigh on larger firms, leases hurt smaller ones
Financial strain is distributed differently across the industry based on size. Businesses with more than $1 million in 2025 sales face payroll challenges. Roughly one-quarter of these large retailers cite staffing costs as their biggest problem. In contrast, smaller businesses with less than $250,000 in sales struggle more with operating costs. Nearly 30% of these small operators point to these expenses as the primary burden. The disparity highlights how fixed costs shift as a company grows. Larger teams require more money to maintain, which eats into margins. Smaller shops, often owner-operated, face higher rent and utility bills as their main fixed expenses. This structural difference means the inflationary environment hits these two groups through different entry points.
Newer businesses are taking a different approach to growth than established ones. Those operating for a decade or fewer are much more aggressive with their strategies. Over four in ten of these newer indies plan to increase their marketing spend. This figure drops to less than one in five for veteran businesses with three decades or more in operation. Plans to launch new paid services show a similar gap. Newer shops are also more likely to explore new product categories, though the difference here is small. This activity suggests a focus on customer acquisition for newer entrants. Established businesses likely rely on the loyalty of their existing customer base rather than aggressive expansion.
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Location and outlook drive spending plans
Location plays a significant role in how shoppers behave and how businesses manage costs. Retailers in medium and large cities report that customers are more price-sensitive. About 43% of these city-based owners say shoppers wait for promotions before buying. In small towns, this figure is lower, at 26%. This suggests that competition and online options in big cities force retailers to offer deals to drive traffic. Conversely, small-town retailers face different challenges. They report higher wholesale costs as their primary business hurdle, with 47% citing this issue compared to 30% in larger markets. The distance from distributors and higher freight costs likely contribute to these inflated wholesale prices.
Optimism drives investment decisions across the board. Businesses expecting higher sales are much more likely to spend on growth. Those forecasting growth plan to invest in new equipment at more than double the rate of those expecting a downturn. Plans to expand or open additional locations also show a similar trend. Almost one-third of optimistic businesses plan expansion, compared to just 16% of those with down forecasts. This suggests that cash flow and confidence are tightly linked to capital expenditure. Retailers who see a profitable path forward feel secure enough to invest in the future. Those anticipating a weak year prioritize preserving capital over expansion.
